Smuggling and Criminogenic Conditions at Harbours – A Shift-Share Analysis of Swedish Municipalities
My thesis examines the relationship between smuggling and a criminogenic condition at Swedish harbours. This topic departs from the fact that many municipalities in Sweden border the sea, and most of these municipalities host a harbour. As one of the critical entry points for people and goods into Sweden, harbours also faced threats from major sources of illicit goods entering the country. Big harbours are often targeted for criminal activities, such as smuggling, with criminals hiding behind harbour-related activities. Currently, there is limited empirical knowledge on the influence of harbour presence in Swedish municipalities on criminological conditions, as well as comparisons with municipalities without harbours. Therefore, my thesis aims to develop an understanding of the relationships among harbours, smuggling, municipalities, and the criminological condition in Swedish municipalities.
This study draws on environmental criminology theories, such as rational choice, routine activity, crime pattern, and social disorganisation to identify patterns of criminal activity at selected major harbours in Sweden. Moreover, it is believed that smuggled goods are rarely confined to a single area and often cause crime spillover into other municipalities or regions. A shift-share analysis is used to identify increases or decreases in total crime across municipalities. This analysis will provide a broader understanding of the effect of smuggling on total crime within a larger regional context. I used a mixed-method approach combining three data sources. First, we obtained seizure statistics from the Swedish Customs Service and used them to analyse the pattern of smuggling at harbours. Second, we gather total and drug crime data from the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention to analyse the crime shift between municipalities with and without harbours, and decompose changes in crime into regional and municipal share effects. Third, semi-structured interviews with Swedish customs officials and selected municipal planners are conducted to provide qualitative insights that support the quantitative analysis and offer perspectives on municipalities.
The results indicate that smuggling is highly concentrated in large harbours, with narcotics representing the most frequently seized commodity across all harbours in more than half of all cases. The shift–share analysis reveals that municipalities without harbours in three counties (Stockholm, Västra Götaland, and Skåne) experienced the most increases in total crime. At the same time, 75% of the eight selected harbour-hosting municipalities also recorded increases in total crime. However, the relationship between border-related smuggling and local criminogenic conditions appears to be complex and context-dependent. Finally, the findings point to a disconnect between national and municipal-level actors, suggesting a governance gap in practice. This gap could be addressed through more integrated, systems-based approaches to crime prevention that better incorporate local and regional knowledge of dynamics in both harbour municipalities and their neighbouring areas.
Figure 1. Distribution of seized goods per harbour between 2018-2024. Data Source: Swedish customs, 2025
Reflecting on my thesis work, I learned that this topic is rarely addressed and that there are still many aspects that can be explored. For example, while we understand that smuggling mainly occurs at large harbours, it is important to note that recorded seizures depend on the authorities’ control routines. Moreover, we do not know for sure how the smuggled goods are distributed to other areas, as it is extremely difficult to trace the actual movement of illegal goods.
Lastly, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Vania Ceccato, who introduced me to this topic and guided me through the journey of writing this thesis. I learned a lot from her professional experience and research tradition, which is reflected in this master’s thesis.
My name is Yunilson, and I am from Indonesia. My educational background is in civil engineering, and I previously worked as a civil engineer and planner on housing projects in Indonesia for more than 5 years. Then, I decided to study at KTH in the Sustainable Urban Planning and Design master’s programme to deepen my understanding of urban and regional planning and contribute to developing more sustainable cities and societies.
